Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
ED 0xed0d…bc18 crypto 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,750 (+34%) realized +$5,648 · open +$102
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%69W / 104L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days+$1,180
30 days+$5,834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$3,179
other 33% +$2,126
crypto 15% −$13
finance 8% +$230
tech 1% +$22
politics 0% −$11
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 50% -18.2%
≤30d 49 +23.7% +11.9% 49% 49% +38.3%
≤90d 173 +11.9% +1.3% 40% 38% +25.1%
all 173 +11.9% +1.3% 40% 38% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 38% +25.1%
10% -8.4% 33% +13.1%
15% -17.3% 28% +2.2%
20% -25.4% 25% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$54 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$2,152
Realized+$5,648
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses69 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions10
Markets (closed)173 / 183
History coverage68d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $968 +$268 (+38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $200 $259 +$59 (+29%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $33 −$167 (-83%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $16 −$84 (-84%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $11 −$39 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $102 +$13 +12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $205 −$42 -21%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $299 +$395 +132%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $28 −$27 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $303 +$125 +41%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $123 −$40 -33%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $101 +$29 +29%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $102 −$24 -24%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $303 +$120 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $55 +$19 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $202 +$110 +54%
Will Norway vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 +$12 +12%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 +$167 +164%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $417 +$456 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $152 +$90 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $33 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $136 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$15 +15%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $504 +$193 +38%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $408 +$484 +119%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $513 +$3,430 +668%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $514 −$500 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $51 +$42 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $103 −$56 -54%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $309 −$303 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $303 +$178 +59%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $61 −$60 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $733 −$717 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $306 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $304 +$205 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $511 +$2,310 +452%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $309 −$300 -97%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $706 +$120 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $204 +$116 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $103 +$735 +715%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $128 +$391 +306%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $605 +$141 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $115 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $163 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $227 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $196 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $271 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $299 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $286 9d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $173 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $187 9d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $28 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 10d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $428 10d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate SELL Juan Bautista Torres $10 11d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate SELL Juan Bautista Torres 21¢ $72 11d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Juan Bautista Torres 17¢ $123 11d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $130 11d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 77¢ $101 11d
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano SELL Felix Gill 19¢ $78 11d
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano BUY Felix Gill 24¢ $102 11d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $303 11d
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 12d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek SELL Dusan Lajovic 100¢ $74 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,151.79 · official $2,142.26 (match) · 405 history records