Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed0c…fccd crypto 1693 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (384 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$418 (-13%) realized −$419 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%863W / 1103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day384.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$602
7 days−$628
14 days−$637
30 days−$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (384 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1915 -20.0% -27.7% 44% 41% -24.6%
≤30d 1966 -19.9% -27.5% 44% 41% -24.4%
≤90d 1966 -19.9% -27.5% 44% 41% -24.4%
all 1966 -19.9% -27.5% 44% 41% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover384.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 41% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 32% -31.6%
15% -40.8% 22% -38.2%
20% -46.6% 17% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses863 / 1103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1966 / 1693
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day384.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1966 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 56¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -167%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -151%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -109%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -118%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -150%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.59 · official $2.59 (match) · 3500 history records