Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xed0b…6274
sports · 26 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +92%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +104%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2 +$1 +64%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 04 $2 +$3 +104%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $3 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 $0 +45%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +126%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -27%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$9
other 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 93¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 21¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 25¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 51¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner BUY Liquid 17¢ $1 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 48¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 60¢ $2 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 23¢ $1 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 57¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 48¢ $2 11d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 21¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL B8 99¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 72¢ $3 11d
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 100¢ $3 11d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 100¢ $2 11d
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 54¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 57¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 58¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 57¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $1 11d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -50.4% -55.2% 25% 25% -48.2%
≤30d 24 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 42% -21.5%
≤90d 24 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 42% -21.5%
all 24 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 42% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 42% -21.5%
10% -33.4% 42% -29.0%
15% -39.8% 38% -35.9%
20% -45.7% 33% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 50 history records