Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
ED 0xed06…2a2c other 241 markets active 1d ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+2%) realized +$38 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate74%160W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$41
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$18
sports 23% −$7
other 14% +$20
politics 8% +$17
tech 5% +$4
finance 5% +$10
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +56.1% +41.2% 83% 34% -9.4%
≤30d 198 +29.9% +17.5% 72% 32% -9.2%
≤90d 217 +28.5% +16.2% 74% 32% -8.9%
all 217 +28.5% +16.2% 74% 32% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.2% 32% -8.9%
10% +5.1% 19% -17.6%
15% -5.0% 12% -25.6%
20% -14.4% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses160 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)217 / 241
History coverage32d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 82¢ 99¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+21%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 67¢ 95¢ $34 $48 +$14 (+42%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 68¢ 86¢ $34 $43 +$9 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $38 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+13%)
MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? No 88¢ 88¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 6¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+117%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? No 71¢ 48¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-32%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 36¢ 19¢ $18 $9 −$8 (-48%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 75¢ 73¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 20¢ 53¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+165%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27? No 89¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Nicki Minaj perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 71¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 52¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 28¢ 5¢ $14 $2 −$11 (-83%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 30¢ 41¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? No 13¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $65 −$6 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $60 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +49%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Jordan Clarkson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Jordan Clarkson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -76%
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oracle say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 50+ times during ear Jun 11 $0 +$1 +1567%
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Jun 10 $2 +$18 +939%
Will "Imagine" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the we Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will "Love" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 09 $9 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Bernie say "Tariff" in Maine? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 5+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 6+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will 4+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 09 $11 −$8 -74%
Will "SpaceX" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $4 +$6 +138%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "NBA" or "Basketball" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 08 $0 $0 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $256 +$28 +11%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 07 $4 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 24h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 59¢ $3 29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 59¢ $55 29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 59¢ $1 29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $51 29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $14 29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 65¢ $0 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $52 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 41h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 71¢ $2 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $6 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $17 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 36¢ $12 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 36¢ $5 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 67¢ $34 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 71¢ $1 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.72 · official $341.07 (match) · 633 history records