Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xecff…ec19 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 60L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$40
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$26
world 33% +$36
other 16% +$1
economics 7% +$4
crypto 5% −$3
sports 1% +$3
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 64% 9% -8.2%
≤30d 18 +1.6% -8.1% 56% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 36 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 6% -8.9%
all 97 -2.3% -11.6% 38% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -9.0%
10% -20.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage478d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $358 +$7 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $315 +$26 +8%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $338 +$18 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $168 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $219 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $19 +$3 +17%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $149 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $208 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $546 −$13 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $157 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $264 −$4 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $140 −$3 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $108 +$1 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $154 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $154 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $156 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $59 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $61 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $56 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 16 $55 +$1 +2%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $144 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $205 +$9 +4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $753 +$4 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1,152 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $711 +$13 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $1,179 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $453 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,183 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? Jul 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $192 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $192 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $146 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $146 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $36 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $156 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $152 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $17 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $186 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $186 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $127 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $168 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $131 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $167 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $24 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $146 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $152 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $149 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $149 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 322 history records