Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xecfd…dd23 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$4
other 10% +$3
weather 9% −$9
crypto 6% +$17
world 5% −$1
sports 4% +$9
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +58.3% +43.2% 75% 75% +39.7%
≤30d 6 +5.5% -4.5% 50% 50% +7.4%
≤90d 10 +19.7% +8.3% 60% 60% +3.1%
all 34 +5.8% -4.3% 29% 21% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 21% -7.8%
10% -13.5% 21% -16.6%
15% -21.8% 21% -24.7%
20% -29.5% 21% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage444d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$15 +58%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 13 $4 +$5 +137%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $14 +$9 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7? May 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 06 $28 +$17 +62%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $192 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $196 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Nov 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 01 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO3) Oct 28 $11 +$6 +54%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? Oct 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Oct 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 06 $25 −$1 -2%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 28 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $22 −$1 -5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 06 $5 $0 -4%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 05 $19 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 04 $29 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? Apr 19 $6 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31? Apr 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $2 $0 -3%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Mar 30 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 62¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 31d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $6 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $14 36d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $4 37d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 46d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 178d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 178d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 178d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 178d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 230d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 230d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 243d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 243d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 245d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 52¢ $14 245d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 245d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 53¢ $15 245d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No 38¢ $14 246d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 40¢ $15 246d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 248d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 248d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO3) BUY FaZe 65¢ $11 251d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 253d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.14 · official $8.14 (match) · 74 history records