Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
EC 0xecfc…2e0c sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,158 (+27%) realized +$2,777 · open +$381
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$564per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,146
7 days+$2,059
14 days+$3,263
30 days+$3,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$675
other 44% +$2,712
world 3% +$408
crypto 1% −$109
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +89.0% +71.0% 75% 75% +14.0%
≤30d 19 +45.9% +32.0% 58% 58% +20.5%
≤90d 19 +45.9% +32.0% 58% 58% +20.5%
all 19 +45.9% +32.0% 58% 58% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.0% 58% +20.5%
10% +19.3% 53% +9.0%
15% +7.8% 53% -1.6%
20% -2.8% 37% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$986) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late +109% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$254 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$2,355
Realized+$2,777
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage278d
Avg bet$564
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $1,500 $1,487 −$13 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $473 $867 +$394 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 +$664 +324%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $204 +$564 +276%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $406 +$408 +100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,328 +$523 +39%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $123 +$422 +344%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$22 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,005 +$375 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $295 +$275 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $496 −$201 -41%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,141 −$1,604 -75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,500 +$717 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $504 −$15 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $321 +$345 +107%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $986 +$982 +100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Cowboys vs. Bears Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,519 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $869 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $768 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $814 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 49¢ $406 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,851 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,328 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $545 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $123 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $125 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $103 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $464 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down $106 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $570 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $295 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $295 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $496 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $496 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $542 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $537 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2,141 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,500 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $487 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $489 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $504 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $666 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $321 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,054 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,354.57 · official $2,354.57 (match) · 51 history records