Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecfb…1a95 weather 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$336 (-22%) realized −$324 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate35%40W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$22
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$94
weather 32% −$114
politics 18% −$213
culture 4% −$22
sports 3% +$14
other 2% +$16
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 43% -13.7%
≤30d 113 -34.5% -40.7% 35% 28% -34.9%
≤90d 113 -34.5% -40.7% 35% 28% -34.9%
all 113 -34.5% -40.7% 35% 28% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 28% -34.9%
10% -46.4% 25% -41.2%
15% -51.6% 17% -46.9%
20% -56.3% 13% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$324
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses40 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)113 / 123
History coverage29d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 40¢ 64¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 16¢ 10¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$24 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$15 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$5 -25%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 3? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 15 $21 +$29 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.53 · official $47.74 · 474 history records