Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xecfb…d7a0 crypto 1694 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,606 (-11%) realized −$971 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%890W / 803L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day100.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$187
14 days−$1,093
30 days−$971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$971
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 48% -18.0%
≤30d 1693 -7.2% -16.1% 53% 51% -15.7%
≤90d 1693 -7.2% -16.1% 53% 51% -15.7%
all 1693 -7.2% -16.1% 53% 51% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 51% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 48% -23.8%
15% -31.4% 44% -31.1%
20% -38.2% 37% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$971
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses890 / 803
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1693 / 1694
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day100.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 239 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $17 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.15 (match) · 3500 history records