Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xecf2…a1c0 crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate79%63W / 17L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day100.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$41
sports 11% −$5
other 10% +$3
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +8.2% -2.1% 79% 58% -1.0%
≤30d 80 +8.2% -2.1% 79% 58% -1.0%
≤90d 80 +8.2% -2.1% 79% 58% -1.0%
all 80 +8.2% -2.1% 79% 58% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 58% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -10.5%
15% -20.0% 32% -19.1%
20% -27.9% 20% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses63 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)80 / 91
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day100.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Athletic Club leading at halftime? No 70¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
CD Universidad de Concepción leading at halftime? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? No 90¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: Draw at halftime? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? No 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? No 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? No 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 19¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? No 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$8 +209%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will IBV Vestmannaeyjar win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Athletic Club leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 35m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 77¢ $5 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 54m
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 1h
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: Draw at half BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
CD Universidad de Concepción leading at halftime? BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.35 · official $61.36 (match) · 160 history records