Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecef…4551
crypto · 1202 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,039 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$953 · open −$86
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$953
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses937 / 281
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1218 / 1202
History coverage38d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1218 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$391
14 days−$202
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 88¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 14? No 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $165 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$14 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $111 +$25 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 11 $67 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $61 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $107 −$103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$681
weather 41% −$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -24.6% -31.7% 57% 21% -15.9%
≤30d 243 -9.4% -18.0% 72% 22% -11.2%
≤90d 1218 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 27% -11.4%
all 1218 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 27% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 27% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 13% -19.9%
15% -30.0% 6% -27.6%
20% -36.8% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 3500 history records