Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecef…1a3d other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$9 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.4% -24.4% 0% 0% -24.4%
≤30d 2 -24.7% -31.9% 0% 0% -29.8%
≤90d 2 -24.7% -31.9% 0% 0% -29.8%
all 2 -24.7% -31.9% 0% 0% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 0% -29.8%
10% -38.4% 0% -36.5%
15% -44.3% 0% -42.6%
20% -49.8% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage42d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $175 $195 +$20 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $146 $150 +$3 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $90 $60 −$31 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $39 −$6 -16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $22 −$7 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $128 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 42d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 42d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 42d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.77 · official $404.77 (match) · 56 history records