Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xecea…232c crypto 1123 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$429 (+1%) realized +$429 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate72%804W / 319L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$130
14 days+$316
30 days+$1,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$892
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -5.0% -14.0% 69% 63% -13.8%
≤30d 587 +4.5% -5.4% 74% 69% -4.7%
≤90d 1046 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 66% -6.9%
all 1123 +0.8% -8.8% 72% 64% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 64% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 52% -16.3%
15% -25.5% 36% -24.4%
20% -32.8% 17% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$33 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$429
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses804 / 319
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1123 / 1123
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1123 Trades
no open positions (256 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$24 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$35 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $45 +$27 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$26 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $58 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $65 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $69 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$27 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$17 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$27 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $69 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$32 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $45 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $61 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $50 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $62 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $48 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $43 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $53 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $43 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $58 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $21 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $64 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records