Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xece9…b274 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-4%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$3
politics 18% +$1
sports 16% −$183
crypto 10% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 3 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 33% -4.5%
≤90d 9 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 11% -6.2%
all 62 -3.0% -12.3% 52% 5% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -12.8%
10% -20.7% 3% -21.1%
15% -28.3% 2% -28.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage616d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? No 99¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $26 +$1 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 28 $12 $0 +1%
Sabres vs. Penguins Nov 26 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 28 $22 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 28 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 25 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 29 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $8 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Nov 08 $24 $0 -0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Nov 08 $25 $0 -0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Nov 08 $25 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Nov 08 $24 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Nov 08 $25 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Nov 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $6 +$2 +36%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $448 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin Presidential Electio Oct 23 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 23 $458 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 23 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 23 $538 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 89¢ $27 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? BUY No 96¢ $26 22d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 98¢ $9 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $16 54d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY No 98¢ $12 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $13 83d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 112d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $15 112d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY No 99¢ $12 142d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $12 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $12 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $12 173d
Sabres vs. Penguins BUY Sabres 50¢ $182 205d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 98¢ $15 234d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 99¢ $16 234d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 99¢ $9 264d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 98¢ $22 264d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 94¢ $29 298d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $28 329d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 355d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 96¢ $27 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $9 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 99¢ $16 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 458d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 458d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $13 495d
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 521d
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 522d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $29.92 (match) · 140 history records