Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xece8…2282 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$323 (+17%) realized +$334 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days−$58
14 days+$293
30 days+$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$105
sports 41% +$197
crypto 8% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +14.2% +3.3% 36% 36% -19.4%
≤30d 52 +25.3% +13.4% 40% 40% +6.2%
≤90d 52 +25.3% +13.4% 40% 40% +6.2%
all 52 +25.3% +13.4% 40% 40% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 40% +6.2%
10% +2.5% 40% -4.0%
15% -7.4% 40% -13.3%
20% -16.5% 35% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$26 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$334
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage17d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $16 +$94 +605%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $31 +$21 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$84 +273%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $61 +$25 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 +$105 +505%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$77 +265%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $14 +$9 +67%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 +$61 +198%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 +$66 +399%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$46 +66%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$51 +99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 +$81 +971%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$38 +74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$28 +56%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $131 +$61 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 +$43 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $67 +$46 +69%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$41 +132%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $16 +$42 +268%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 47¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 86¢ $23 45h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 45h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 73¢ $13 45h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 45h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 57¢ $18 45h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 82¢ $52 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $31 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $51 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $51 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 88¢ $87 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $61 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 22¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 7d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 90¢ $59 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.28 · official $109.28 (match) · 98 history records