Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xece8…130f
crypto · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$114 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$436
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)53 / 65
History coverage192d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 11 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$55
14 days−$5
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 46¢ 49¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-59%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
GPT ads by December 31? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? No 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? No 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? No 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $355 before 2026?? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $208 −$17 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $234 +$55 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 05 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $53 +$134 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 12 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 12 $413 −$25 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 12 $22 +$10 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 30 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 11 $2 $0 +18%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
GPT ads by December 31? Dec 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Decembe Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% +$47
other 23% −$55
tech 9% −$175
sports 5% +$71
politics 2% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 66¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $83 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $107 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $153 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -44.4% -49.7% 35% 29% -16.5%
≤30d 22 -28.1% -34.9% 41% 36% -9.8%
≤90d 33 -17.0% -24.9% 52% 45% -11.4%
all 53 -41.7% -47.3% 38% 32% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 32% -13.5%
10% -52.3% 23% -21.7%
15% -56.9% 13% -29.3%
20% -61.2% 9% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.50 · official $446.52 · 178 history records