Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xece5…43cf
weather · 504 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$2,479 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,475 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,993
Realized+$2,475
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses489 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)496 / 504
History coverage49d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 496 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$210
14 days+$565
30 days+$1,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,021 $1,026 +$4 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $477 $475 −$2 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $94 $95 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 11? Jun 12 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $302 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 10? Jun 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $307 +$125 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 10 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 10 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 10 $272 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 9? Jun 10 $288 +$12 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $113 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $533 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 8? Jun 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $492 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 7? Jun 08 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 7? Jun 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 07 $41 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 6? Jun 07 $153 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 07 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 06 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 06 $1,375 +$14 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $498 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 05 $742 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 05 $1,030 −$31 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 72°F or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1,117 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1,980 +$18 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June Jun 05 $990 +$9 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 04 $1,073 −$74 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 04 $34 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$2,415
other 3% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $55 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 28m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $31 53m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $212 55m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $495 55m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $283 55m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $119 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $91 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $477 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $98 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 BUY Yes 70¢ $307 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $248 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 3% -6.7%
≤30d 286 +1.3% -8.3% 99% 1% -8.5%
≤90d 496 +5.3% -4.7% 99% 1% -8.5%
all 496 +5.3% -4.7% 99% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 1% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 1% -17.3%
15% -22.1% 0% -25.2%
20% -29.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,993.43 · official $1,993.43 (match) · 3500 history records