Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xece2…4580 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-6%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day50.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -6.2% -15.1% 70% 70% -17.1%
≤30d 30 -6.2% -15.1% 70% 70% -17.1%
≤90d 30 -6.2% -15.1% 70% 70% -17.1%
all 30 -6.2% -15.1% 70% 70% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 70% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 37% -25.0%
15% -30.7% 27% -32.3%
20% -37.5% 7% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$4 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records