Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xece2…6f5f sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$497 (+40%) realized +$500 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$170
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$483
world 4% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
politics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +60.5% +45.3% 67% 67% +29.4%
≤90d 14 +29.4% +17.1% 71% 50% +33.7%
all 20 +15.8% +4.8% 75% 35% +29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 35% +29.6%
10% -5.2% 30% +17.2%
15% -14.4% 25% +5.8%
20% -22.8% 20% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$85 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$500
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage178d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 71¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $173 −$170 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $100 +$93 +93%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $133 +$250 +188%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $106 +$252 +238%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $151 +$299 +197%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 16 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 16 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? May 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? May 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Suns May 16 $35 +$9 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $52 −$51 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $137 −$133 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 27 $69 −$68 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of January? Feb 03 $25 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 28 $22 +$1 +3%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 08 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.41 · official $93.41 (match) · 36 history records