Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xece1…30cc world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$6
other 7% $0
politics 4% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 0% -10.4%
all 30 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -10.1%
10% -17.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage489d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $63 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $49 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $60 −$4 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +7%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 -2%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $8 $0 +0%
San José State vs. Utah State Mar 03 $7 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $31 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $3 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $27 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $31 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $31 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $31 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $31 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $35 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $35 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $22 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.57 · official $30.57 (match) · 87 history records