Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecd9…ebc3
crypto · 456 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$290 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$189 · open −$100
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses227 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions5
Markets (closed)451 / 456
History coverage130d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 5 History 451 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$175
14 days−$197
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 15¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 24¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $304 $0 −$304 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Trail Blazers 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Cavaliers 44¢ 0¢ $178 $0 −$178 (-100%)
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? No 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Zverev 38¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $315 $0 −$315 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $143 −$34 -24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$23 -45%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $61 −$11 -18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $123 −$74 -60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $402 +$36 +9%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 11 $34 −$11 -33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $279 +$231 +83%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Jun 09 $54 −$27 -50%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $51 −$43 -86%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 03 $323 −$21 -7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $237 +$153 +65%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $311 −$304 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $396 +$50 +13%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $959 −$479 -50%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $72 +$60 +83%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be 150 points or greater? May 16 $12 −$10 -89%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $511 +$529 +103%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $447 +$39 +9%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $74 −$14 -18%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 15 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $33 −$5 -16%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $458 −$21 -4%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $150 −$4 -2%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $499 +$119 +24%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $56 −$10 -17%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $121 −$116 -96%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $848 +$193 +23%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 11 $255 −$54 -21%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $960 +$57 +6%
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Guiomar Maristany May 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Portugal be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 07 $25 −$18 -72%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 06 $152 +$1 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 06 $180 +$14 +8%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $349 +$5 +2%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 06 $181 −$178 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $200 +$44 +22%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Taylor Townsend vs Victori May 05 $294 +$38 +13%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 May 03 $170 −$166 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% +$1,530
crypto 32% −$466
other 24% −$1,134
culture 2% −$149
world 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 15¢ $37 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $46 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 10h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 31¢ $28 11h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 31¢ $71 11h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $143 14h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $41 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 15h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $56 24h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Mexico 39¢ $48 24h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 24¢ $61 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $49 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $123 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $243 25h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $200 37h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $195 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 40h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $279 2d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $34 3d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? SELL Yes 40¢ $27 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $7 3d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 37¢ $51 5d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 39¢ $50 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $51 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 30¢ $125 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -49.6% -54.4% 15% 8% -21.0%
≤30d 31 -14.9% -23.0% 26% 19% -5.2%
≤90d 73 -33.6% -40.0% 26% 16% -24.8%
all 451 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 36% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 36% -9.2%
10% -24.5% 30% -17.9%
15% -31.8% 24% -25.8%
20% -38.5% 17% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.11 · official $9.11 (match) · 2486 history records