Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecd9…ab66 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$163 (-8%) realized −$127 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$93
other 29% −$6
world 8% −$22
sports 7% +$30
economics 3% −$50
finance 2% +$13
crypto 1% −$20
weather 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.1% -2.2% 33% 33% -3.4%
≤30d 26 +0.3% -9.3% 23% 19% -14.0%
≤90d 59 -10.7% -19.2% 24% 22% -17.0%
all 59 -10.7% -19.2% 24% 22% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 22% -17.0%
10% -26.9% 19% -24.9%
15% -34.0% 17% -32.2%
20% -40.5% 10% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)59 / 70
History coverage75d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $110 $88 −$22 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $66 $73 +$7 (+11%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 53¢ 42¢ $90 $72 −$18 (-20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $67 $65 −$3 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $49 $62 +$13 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $74 $58 −$16 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 52¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$24 +154%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $14 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $27 +$14 +50%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1 $0 -19%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1 $0 -8%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? May 30 $31 −$2 -7%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $100 −$19 -19%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 29 $5 $0 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $106 −$9 -9%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 29 $40 −$3 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $11 −$1 -9%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? May 28 $5 $0 -6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $20 −$5 -27%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? May 10 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $20 +$11 +54%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 03 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Apr 24 $20 −$18 -92%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30? Apr 19 $40 −$16 -41%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 18 $20 −$16 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? Apr 15 $30 −$24 -79%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 14 $40 −$3 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 14 $40 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on April Apr 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%? Apr 12 $18 −$7 -41%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Apr 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 10 $50 −$7 -13%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $60 +$22 +37%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 09 $40 −$5 -11%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 09 $50 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $39 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $15 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $8 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 38¢ $15 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 33¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $15 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $58 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $17 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.26 · official $558.26 (match) · 288 history records