Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecd8…a07d other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$658 (-0%) realized −$659 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,480per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$70
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$112
other 37% −$56
sports 8% −$498
culture 3% −$6
economics 2% −$4
world 2% −$7
tech 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -8.3% -17.0% 9% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 115 -11.2% -19.6% 9% 5% -10.0%
all 140 -5.4% -14.4% 14% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 11% -9.8%
10% -22.6% 11% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 9% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,387) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$12 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$659
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,480
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $382 $383 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,562 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,387 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,948 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $349 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 14 $356 +$5 +1%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,768 −$7 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $3,532 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,722 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,555 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 05 $50 +$14 +29%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,434 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $841 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $750 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $576 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $4,757 −$5 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $5,834 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $501 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $758 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $560 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,447 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,872 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,001 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,745 −$3 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,069 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $3,024 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $3,361 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,468 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $1,455 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $3,710 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $697 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $698 2h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,032 26h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,033 28h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 28h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,032 31h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $349 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $349 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 99¢ $356 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $919 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $920 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $915 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $916 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,039 9d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $860 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $861 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $50 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.92 · official $382.92 (match) · 501 history records