Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecd6…f326 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-58%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.2% -34.1% 56% 44% -64.0%
≤30d 9 -27.2% -34.1% 56% 44% -64.0%
≤90d 9 -27.2% -34.1% 56% 44% -64.0%
all 9 -27.2% -34.1% 56% 44% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 44% -64.0%
10% -40.4% 22% -67.5%
15% -46.2% 11% -70.6%
20% -51.5% 11% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$27 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$75 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.18 · official $11.18 (match) · 15 history records