Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
EC 0xecd5…755e other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$3,820 (+7%) realized +$3,820 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%56W / 38L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$538per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$374est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$495
14 days−$6,052
30 days−$4,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$5,085
other 48% −$199
crypto 3% +$348
world 0% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.8% +8.4% 67% 67% -4.6%
≤30d 53 +9.3% -1.1% 36% 36% -23.2%
≤90d 94 +30.1% +17.7% 60% 59% -1.2%
all 94 +30.1% +17.7% 60% 59% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 59% -1.2%
10% +6.4% 57% -10.6%
15% -3.9% 47% -19.3%
20% -13.3% 37% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$585) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$372 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,820
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses56 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$374
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage88d
Avg bet$538
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $233 +$181 +78%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,976 +$851 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,218 +$758 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,574 −$1,555 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $395 +$627 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $159 −$155 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $761 −$752 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $506 +$256 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $222 +$285 +129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $299 −$295 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $351 −$346 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $585 +$1,160 +198%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $710 +$489 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $100 −$97 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $963 −$269 -28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $220 −$217 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $283 +$136 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $664 +$577 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $207 −$34 -16%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? Jun 13 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 13 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 13 $452 −$452 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 13 $373 −$189 -51%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Jun 13 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 13 $443 −$443 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $318 −$318 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $547 −$547 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Jun 13 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-16? Jun 13 $554 −$554 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 13 $3,745 −$668 -18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 13 $744 −$744 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 13 $400 −$400 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,127 −$1,127 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 13 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $2,394 −$2,394 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$24 -40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $35 +$1,007 +2878%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $195 +$213 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $669 +$413 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $104 +$161 +154%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $194 +$212 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $333 +$145 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,990 +$1,395 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $414 55m
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $233 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,827 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2,976 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,976 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,218 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $698 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $876 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 47¢ $146 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,022 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $395 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 15¢ $159 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $193 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $761 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $762 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $506 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $222 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $299 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $351 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,744 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 91¢ $1,199 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $585 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $710 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 12¢ $100 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $273 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 49¢ $680 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $690 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $13 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $220 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $419 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records