Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecd1…0fd1 world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 22% +$7
sports 8% −$13
politics 5% −$28
culture 4% +$4
tech 4% +$1
economics 3% +$3
weather 3% +$1
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 25 -4.4% -13.5% 28% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 36 -3.1% -12.3% 28% 0% -9.4%
all 58 -4.0% -13.2% 45% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -10.5%
10% -21.5% 5% -19.0%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.9%
20% -36.0% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage530d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $61 −$3 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $41 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $8 −$1 -15%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $77 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $41 −$3 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $42 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in May 07 $68 +$3 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $85 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $85 +$1 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $84 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $5 +$4 +83%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $76 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump sign 34 or more executive orders in February? Mar 05 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 36m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $28 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $44 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $39 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $41 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $45 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records