trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $991 | $0 | −$991 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $49 | $0 | −$49 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $10,900 | $0 | −$10,900 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? | Oct 21 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? | Oct 21 | $991 | −$991 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | Oct 21 | $10,901 | −$10,900 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? | Jul 07 | $3,356 | −$56 | -2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 8? | Jul 07 | $3,474 | −$117 | -3% |
| Bitcoin above $106,000 on July 9? | Jul 07 | $3,731 | −$257 | -7% |
| US-EU trade agreement by July 9? | Jul 07 | $500 | −$21 | -4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 9? | Jul 07 | $3,118 | +$135 | +4% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? | Jul 05 | $3,188 | +$429 | +14% |
| Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? | Jul 04 | $3,566 | −$378 | -11% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 4? | Jul 03 | $6,644 | +$194 | +3% |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? | Jun 30 | $3,271 | +$65 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1? | Jun 30 | $3,250 | +$57 | +2% |
| Bitcoin all time high before July? | Jun 29 | $3,194 | +$56 | +2% |
| Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 27? | Jun 27 | $3,066 | +$128 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27? | Jun 26 | $3,040 | +$27 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? | Jun 25 | $2,657 | +$383 | +14% |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | May 24 | $108,860 | +$152,034 | +140% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | May 21 | $8,529 | +$161 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 19 | -7.3% | -16.2% | 58% | 16% | +63.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -16.2% | 16% | +63.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -24.2% | 5% | +47.5% |
| 15% | -31.5% | 5% | +33.3% |
| 20% | -38.2% | 5% | +20.2% |