Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xeccd…bb26 politics 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% $0
other 31% $0
crypto 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage92d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $105 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $104 56m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $104 14h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $104 9d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $104 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $104 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $104 20d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 29d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 31d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $104 34d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $22 34d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $82 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 58d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 59d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 59d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $105 61d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $61 62d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $44 62d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $105 65d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $105 66d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 70d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 70d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 77d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 78d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $105 86d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $105 86d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 91d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $105 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records