Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecc8…9f59 weather 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate78%172W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$2
14 days+$12
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% +$18
crypto 20% +$12
sports 1% −$11
culture 0% −$16
other 0% −$2
world 0% −$12
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 5% -9.7%
≤30d 77 +0.9% -8.7% 94% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 154 +0.0% -9.5% 95% 1% -9.4%
all 220 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses172 / 48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)220 / 225
History coverage590d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 22? No 99¢ 94¢ $54 $51 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 22? No 100¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $68 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $184 −$14 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $178 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $212 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $155 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 11 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $139 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $68 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $206 −$65 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 5? Jun 06 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 5? Jun 06 $113 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $243 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 03 $227 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 01 $203 −$8 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $250 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $12 51m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $15 53m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $68 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $18 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $59 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $113 40h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $35 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $15 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $48 40h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $82 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $127 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $93 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $82 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 97¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 97¢ $32 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 97¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.84 · official $210.38 (match) · 639 history records