Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecc8…9335
weather · 683 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$422 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$467 · open −$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,076
Realized+$467
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses576 / 42
Open positions63
Markets (closed)618 / 683
History coverage13d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day263.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 63 History 618 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$68
14 days+$467
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $118 $119 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $119 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? No 96¢ 96¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $91 $94 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $79 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 96¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 15? No 94¢ 95¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 96¢ 94¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $84 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $217 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 14? Jun 13 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $118 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 13 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 13 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on June 14? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 13 $50 −$24 -49%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 14? Jun 12 $64 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$388
crypto 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 94¢ $3 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $15 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 94¢ $17 16m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $17 16m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 94¢ $14 21m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $17 22m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 27m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $6 28m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 94¢ $17 31m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $4 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 94¢ $17 38m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 94¢ $7 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 85¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $43 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 265 -6.8% -15.7% 89% 1% -9.1%
≤30d 618 +3.1% -6.7% 93% 2% -8.4%
≤90d 618 +3.1% -6.7% 93% 2% -8.4%
all 618 +3.1% -6.7% 93% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover263.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 2% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 1% -17.1%
15% -23.8% 1% -25.1%
20% -31.3% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,076.47 · official $3,075.63 (match) · 3500 history records