Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecc6…b97a weather 404 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,353 (+40%) realized +$2,367 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%117W / 282L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,141
7 days−$974
14 days−$787
30 days+$921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,135
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -59.7% -63.5% 16% 15% -65.5%
≤30d 241 -2.9% -12.1% 24% 23% +17.2%
≤90d 399 +10.5% +0.0% 29% 29% +19.6%
all 399 +10.5% +0.0% 29% 29% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 29% +19.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 27% +8.2%
15% -18.3% 26% -2.3%
20% -26.3% 25% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$11 · ×4.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$2,367
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses117 / 282
Open positions5
Markets (closed)399 / 404
History coverage63d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 22? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 22 $7 +$20 +276%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? Jun 22 $26 −$13 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 22 $40 −$24 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 10? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 31? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$3 +107%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 10? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 27? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $9 +$15 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 12? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 21 $65 −$55 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 22? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 48¢ $10 19h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 97¢ $23 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 38¢ $0 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.27 · official $10.27 (match) · 2099 history records