Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecc3…f5ff other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$584 (+0%) realized +$583 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,643per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$97
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$69
politics 38% −$125
sports 11% +$728
culture 3% −$9
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 50 -12.1% -20.5% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 125 -10.7% -19.2% 8% 5% -9.6%
all 158 -2.7% -11.9% 15% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 11% -9.3%
10% -20.4% 11% -18.0%
15% -28.1% 10% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,513) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$13 · ×7.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$583
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,643
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $260 $261 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,223 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,420 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,842 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,676 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,223 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,359 −$5 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,657 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,334 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,518 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5,776 −$8 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,690 −$3 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 03 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $572 +$1 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $6,345 −$5 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $2,831 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $912 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $4,197 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,294 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $2,709 −$4 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $4,468 −$5 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,400 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $469 2h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $469 4h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 23h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 25h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,404 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,406 29h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 45h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 47h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,221 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,223 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,235 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,289 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,291 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,128 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,215 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,216 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,222 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,223 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,235 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,326 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,327 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,334 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,335 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $260 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,655 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.44 · official $261.44 (match) · 536 history records