Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecc2…3eb6 crypto 353 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$87 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%264W / 84L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$369
14 days+$757
30 days+$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 30% −$192
crypto 26% +$376
other 25% −$51
tech 7% +$110
sports 5% −$57
world 3% −$117
politics 3% −$358
finance 1% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 24% -5.9%
≤30d 145 -8.7% -17.4% 72% 23% -7.2%
≤90d 348 -6.4% -15.3% 76% 24% -9.8%
all 348 -6.4% -15.3% 76% 24% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 24% -9.8%
10% -23.4% 8% -18.5%
15% -30.8% 5% -26.4%
20% -37.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$42 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,206
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses264 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)348 / 353
History coverage75d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $280 $291 +$11 (+4%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 52¢ 75¢ $87 $125 +$38 (+44%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 22¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $676 +$71 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 +$14 +16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 18 $303 +$65 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $79 +$48 +61%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $48 +$21 +44%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $161 +$7 +5%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $160 −$9 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $88 −$16 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $520 −$99 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 −$21 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$12 -58%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $168 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $525 +$46 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $331 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $501 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $511 +$23 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $501 +$20 +4%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $203 +$48 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $200 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $301 −$17 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $81 +$12 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $901 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $701 +$15 +2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $267 +$31 +12%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $297 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $402 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $122 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $279 −$54 -19%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $270 +$39 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $643 +$21 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$13 +25%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $60 +$28 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $40 −$5 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $537 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$22 +88%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $233 +$33 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 24m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $81 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 87¢ $67 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 89¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 100¢ $641 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $500 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 100¢ $92 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $102 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $89 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 97¢ $368 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 90¢ $676 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? SELL No 100¢ $224 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $24 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 73¢ $72 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $24 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,206.38 · official $1,206.39 (match) · 1066 history records