Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecc0…4800 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$189 (-29%) realized −$188 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$192
14 days−$192
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$191
sports 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 14% -38.3%
≤30d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 14% -38.3%
≤90d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 14% -38.3%
all 21 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 14% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 14% -38.3%
10% -18.9% 10% -44.2%
15% -26.8% 5% -49.6%
20% -33.9% 5% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage42d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow Jun 16 $5 −$3 -55%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$112 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$14 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 99¢ $10 1h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 98¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $10 1h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Ignacio Monzon 11¢ $3 3h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Ignacio Monzon 10¢ $3 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 97¢ $10 6h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 93¢ $10 6h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 94¢ $10 6h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Grigor Dimitrov 99¢ $8 6h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 99¢ $8 7h
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow SELL Gornes/Walkow 43¢ $2 9h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 16h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 16h
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow BUY Gornes/Walkow 94¢ $5 16h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 97¢ $7 16h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 17h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $70 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.28 · official $49.26 (match) · 53 history records