Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecbe…62b3 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$3
other 15% −$4
finance 10% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 16 +30.9% +18.4% 69% 12% -9.8%
≤90d 17 +29.1% +16.8% 65% 12% -9.8%
all 25 +16.1% +5.0% 64% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 8% -10.3%
10% -5.0% 4% -18.9%
15% -14.2% 4% -26.7%
20% -22.6% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage459d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $73 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $81 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $40 −$8 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $4 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $16 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $15 −$2 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $7 +$1 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $45 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $36 +$2 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $42 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $38 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $31 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $3 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $35 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 19h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $32 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $40 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records