Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EC 0xecbb…3226 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$317 (+29%) realized +$317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$225
sports 9% +$22
crypto 8% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 75% +17.0%
≤30d 12 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 75% +17.0%
≤90d 12 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 75% +17.0%
all 12 +12.7% +2.0% 75% 75% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 75% +17.0%
10% -7.8% 67% +5.8%
15% -16.7% 67% -4.4%
20% -24.9% 33% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$32 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.23 per $1 lost it wins $4.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 36¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $145 +$63 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $85 +$60 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $53 +$32 +60%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$24 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $310 +$55 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 +$52 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $145 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $85 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $53 38h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $61 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $154 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 71¢ $154 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $157 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $104 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.43 · official $30.43 (match) · 24 history records