Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EC 0xecb9…bdd4 tech 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,016 (+3%) realized +$1,745 · open +$271
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate78%53W / 15L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$760per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$10,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$120
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 33% +$995
world 31% +$532
other 25% +$951
politics 9% −$442
finance 0% +$19
sports 0% +$44
culture 0% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.3% +19.7% 100% 100% +19.7%
≤30d 9 +27.5% +15.3% 89% 56% -3.5%
≤90d 20 +10.4% -0.1% 85% 35% -5.3%
all 68 -6.3% -15.2% 78% 25% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 25% -6.0%
10% -23.3% 10% -15.0%
15% -30.7% 9% -23.2%
20% -37.5% 6% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$569) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$93 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$10,041
Realized+$1,745
Unrealized+$271
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses53 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)68 / 76
History coverage271d
Avg bet$760
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,327 $4,344 +$17 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $3,256 $3,437 +$180 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $853 $924 +$71 (+8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $778 $780 +$2 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $315 $315 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 34¢ 34¢ $202 $202 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +130%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? Jun 07 $1,580 +$104 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 30 $254 +$12 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 29 $56 +$4 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 20 $3,408 −$27 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? May 20 $137 +$9 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 11 $89 +$8 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 01 $1,277 +$268 +21%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $546 +$22 +4%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $2,994 +$50 +2%
Will NVIDIA reach $216 in March? Mar 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March? Mar 26 $67 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 24 $49 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $472 +$74 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Mar 19 $277 +$6 +2%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Mar 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 11 $2,481 +$210 +8%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $20 +$3 +15%
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 07 $138 +$27 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $3,488 +$300 +9%
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? Dec 10 $1,550 −$234 -15%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 10 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Dec 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $2,423 +$359 +15%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Dec 07 $1,848 +$169 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 20 $1,476 +$73 +5%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? Nov 17 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 15? Nov 17 $70 −$60 -85%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Nov 06 $481 −$3 -0%
Will Meta dip to $670 in November? Nov 03 $269 +$2 +1%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2025? Oct 30 $672 +$4 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 29 $3,752 +$57 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 28 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 26 $91 +$6 +6%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? Oct 24 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Oct 22 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31? Oct 22 $300 +$13 +4%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 22 $476 +$2 +0%
Will Apple acquire Mistral by November 30? Oct 22 $25 $0 +1%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Oct 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 21 $14 +$2 +13%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025? Oct 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20? Oct 20 $569 +$49 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $245 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $23 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 60¢ $22 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 41¢ $20 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $110 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $101 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL No 84¢ $334 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,393 13d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,363 13d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 13d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 13d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 13d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 13d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 14d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 14d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 14d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $289 14d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $294 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,041.30 · official $10,041.30 (match) · 654 history records