Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xecb8…36e1 sports 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+7%) realized +$108 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$93
other 5% +$6
weather 2% +$15
politics 1% −$10
tech 0% −$5
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +6.7% -3.5% 89% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 21 -8.5% -17.3% 76% 43% -3.4%
≤90d 27 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 41% -3.5%
all 32 -6.4% -15.3% 72% 47% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 47% -2.5%
10% -23.4% 25% -11.8%
15% -30.8% 16% -20.4%
20% -37.6% 9% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage96d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 80¢ 60¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-26%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 +$6 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 +$6 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $104 −$14 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $43 +$7 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $90 +$9 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $90 +$9 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$11 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $5 +$4 +89%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Mar 31 $4 −$1 -18%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 15 $65 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15 Mar 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 15? Mar 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14? Mar 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 14? Mar 14 $10 +$4 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $40 18m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 49m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $44 52m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 52m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $45 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $4 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $100 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $92 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 79¢ $80 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $97 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $43 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $26 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $64 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $90 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $39 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $121 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.11 · official $37.11 · 73 history records