Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecb7…ce06 crypto 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%55W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 29% 29% -43.0%
≤30d 47 +2.8% -7.0% 40% 40% -3.9%
≤90d 61 -12.3% -20.7% 34% 34% -18.1%
all 169 +7.6% -2.7% 33% 31% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 31% -13.4%
10% -12.0% 31% -21.7%
15% -20.5% 31% -29.2%
20% -28.3% 30% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses55 / 114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage116d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$12 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$19 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$9 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$25 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$22 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$21 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$7 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$22 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$23 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$9 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$16 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$18 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$12 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 08 $17 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$11 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$17 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$26 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 04 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $17 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $13 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $33 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $30 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $20 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $14 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 427 history records