Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecb5…72d7 sports 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,530 (-6%) realized −$5,847 · open −$683
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%162W / 46L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,908
7 days−$1,864
14 days−$1,864
30 days−$4,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$1,458
world 23% −$421
other 21% +$3,655
finance 10% −$7,015
tech 3% −$170
politics 1% −$1,142
crypto 1% −$184
weather 0% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +19.5% +8.1% 92% 67% -19.9%
≤30d 79 -8.7% -17.4% 78% 30% -15.0%
≤90d 208 -7.0% -15.9% 78% 40% -13.3%
all 208 -7.0% -15.9% 78% 40% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 40% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 21% -21.6%
15% -31.3% 7% -29.2%
20% -38.0% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$526) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$367 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,512
Realized−$5,847
Unrealized−$683
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses162 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 210
History coverage53d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $1,648 $1,489 −$159 (-10%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? Yes 37¢ $547 $23 −$524 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,744 +$212 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $328 +$172 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,915 +$328 +17%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $866 +$34 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,533 +$837 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,228 +$144 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $978 +$250 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $811 +$27 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $677 +$134 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4,820 −$4,265 -88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $216 +$218 +101%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $172 +$44 +26%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $17 −$17 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $393 −$6 -2%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $528 −$521 -99%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Tereza Martincova Jun 02 $476 +$53 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $95 +$4 +4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -3%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Dana Charintceva Jun 02 $673 −$669 -99%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Kira Pavlova Jun 02 $82 +$18 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $316 −$314 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $822 +$13 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $2,305 +$173 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $79 +$21 +26%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 01 $90 +$23 +26%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $3,257 +$687 +21%
ITF Kayseri: Pablo Perez Ramos vs Patrick Schoen May 31 $85 +$5 +5%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $82 +$3 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $80 +$2 +3%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 30 $127 +$16 +12%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Kilian Feldbausch May 30 $526 +$180 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $2,361 +$590 +25%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kristina Kroitor vs Aruzhan Sagandikova May 30 $884 +$26 +3%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey May 30 $289 −$286 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $3,308 +$10 +0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $1,376 +$313 +23%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Martin Krumich May 29 $1,197 +$47 +4%
Centurion: Orel Kimhi vs Giles Hussey May 29 $2,031 +$44 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $6,747 +$14 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 29 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $1,915 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $328 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,512.44 · official $1,481.73 · 1185 history records