Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xecb4…410f politics 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-0%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$16
politics 37% −$14
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% −$83
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -3.9% -13.0% 3% 2% -9.7%
all 136 -5.2% -14.2% 6% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 4% -9.9%
10% -22.4% 4% -18.5%
15% -29.9% 3% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×6.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 128
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage116d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $227 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $183 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $412 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $168 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $405 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $382 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 01 $156 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $346 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $371 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $164 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $162 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $161 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 8h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 8h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 10h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 18h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 20h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 27h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 22d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $152 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $152 28d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 404 history records