Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecb3…fc9a other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$606 (-13%) realized −$606 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$628
14 days−$628
30 days−$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$513
sports 7% −$69
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.9% -11.3% 57% 50% -32.5%
≤30d 15 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 47% -33.9%
≤90d 27 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 48% -21.4%
all 50 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 46% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 46% -21.1%
10% -21.8% 42% -28.7%
15% -29.4% 34% -35.6%
20% -36.3% 22% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$67 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$606
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage133d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $181 +$42 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $123 +$28 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $602 −$600 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +252%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$21 +45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $791 +$46 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 +$27 +18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +41%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $152 −$150 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $187 +$102 +54%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $202 +$76 +38%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $20 +$91 +442%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $152 +$68 +45%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $224 +$102 +46%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $50 +$41 +82%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $15 +$73 +488%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $150 +$25 +17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $150 +$45 +30%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 01 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 27 $15 +$10 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 27 $6 +$5 +91%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Feb 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $50 +$36 +72%
Will Benfica advance to the round of 16? Feb 25 $8 $0 +6%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $35 +$14 +41%
Open Sud de France: Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $50 +$43 +85%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $50 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $224 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $181 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $105 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $42 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $602 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $66 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $837 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $791 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 96¢ $178 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 6d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 20d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $152 30d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 14¢ $15 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $289 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 64¢ $187 38d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 39d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $91 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records