Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecb2…f6cf sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-4%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$4
sports 40% $0
crypto 18% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 49% -10.6%
≤30d 43 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 49% -10.6%
≤90d 43 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 49% -10.6%
all 43 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 49% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 49% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 47% -19.1%
15% -22.0% 44% -26.9%
20% -29.7% 35% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 83¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +249%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +165%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $3 57m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 20¢ $1 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $1 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 40¢ $1 6h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 18h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $1 18h
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 69¢ $1 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL No 30¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 36¢ $3 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 25h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.99 · official $3.84 (match) · 88 history records