Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecaf…1cdd other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1
world 29% +$4
politics 17% +$1
sports 7% $0
culture 6% $0
finance 5% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 14 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 21% -7.6%
≤90d 16 -5.2% -14.3% 38% 19% -8.0%
all 56 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 9% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -8.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage280d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $29 −$3 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $20 −$2 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $35 +$5 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 31 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $40 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Sep 25 $7 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $22 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $37 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $7 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $19 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $8 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $39 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $12 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $13 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $13 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records