Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xecae…8459 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$881 (+49%) realized +$881 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$846
14 days+$852
30 days+$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$43
other 35% +$895
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +72.8% +56.4% 77% 23% +33.7%
≤30d 14 +70.6% +54.3% 79% 29% +33.6%
≤90d 14 +70.6% +54.3% 79% 29% +33.6%
all 14 +70.6% +54.3% 79% 29% +33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.3% 29% +33.6%
10% +39.6% 29% +20.8%
15% +26.1% 29% +9.2%
20% +13.7% 21% -1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +165% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$38 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.53 per $1 lost it wins $8.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$881
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $151 +$3 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $45 +$2 +4%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $225 +$15 +7%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $225 +$2 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $114 +$74 +64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 +$804 +980%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$56 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $320 +$1 +0%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $369 −$39 -10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $15 +$6 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $66 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 94¢ $88 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $15 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $47 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $67 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $45 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $20 4h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $45 5h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 100¢ $45 5h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $182 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $45 5h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 99¢ $45 6h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $45 6h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $45 6h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 98¢ $45 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $45 10h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $174 10h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $180 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 66¢ $188 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $886 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $14 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $14 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $14 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $14 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $22 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No $33 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.90 · official $14.90 (match) · 89 history records