Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecab…e8d4 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,755 (-16%) realized −$149 · open −$1,606
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$5,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$896
7 days−$800
14 days−$1,008
30 days−$1,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$2,870
sports 4% +$317
world 2% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -34.4% -40.6% 22% 22% -48.0%
≤30d 17 -9.7% -18.3% 35% 35% -48.1%
≤90d 30 +2.5% -7.3% 37% 37% -32.2%
all 30 +2.5% -7.3% 37% 37% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 37% -32.2%
10% -16.1% 37% -38.7%
15% -24.2% 37% -44.6%
20% -31.7% 30% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$89 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$5,742
Realized−$149
Unrealized−$1,606
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage68d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,348 $5,742 −$1,606 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $668 −$653 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $113 −$110 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $81 −$79 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$140 +140%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $105 +$82 +78%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$10 -24%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $645 −$22 -3%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $61 +$101 +165%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Iceland? May 31 $11 +$19 +185%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $69 +$45 +65%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $16 +$20 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $241 −$236 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $89 −$87 -98%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 1 Manchester City FC? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $109 −$10 -9%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 10 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 10 $101 −$3 -3%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $225 +$85 +38%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $104 +$76 +73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $28 +$16 +57%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $44 +$241 +549%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $65 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $30 +$12 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $43 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $91 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes $29 35h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes $22 35h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes $31 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 40h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $100 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $23 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,741.92 · official $5,741.92 (match) · 224 history records