Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecab…d789 other 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%28W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$3
sports 26% −$4
politics 20% −$3
crypto 6% −$2
world 6% $0
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 197 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses28 / 169
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage172d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $294 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $67 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 02 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $62 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $63 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 30 $83 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $119 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 26 $421 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $26 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $26 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $29 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $29 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $23 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $23 39d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $22 75d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 75d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 75d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $32 75d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $32 75d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $32 75d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $22 75d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $22 76d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $17 76d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $17 76d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 93¢ $23 76d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 93¢ $23 76d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $24 76d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $24 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $26 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $26 77d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $25 77d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $25 77d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 93¢ $23 77d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $23 77d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 77d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $27 77d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $29 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.84 · official $32.84 (match) · 780 history records