Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xecaa…e5ea other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$127 (+19%) realized +$128 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$111
sports 22% +$86
crypto 2% +$15
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +61.2% +45.9% 64% 60% +35.8%
≤30d 25 +61.2% +45.9% 64% 60% +35.8%
≤90d 25 +61.2% +45.9% 64% 60% +35.8%
all 25 +61.2% +45.9% 64% 60% +35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.9% 60% +35.8%
10% +31.9% 60% +22.8%
15% +19.2% 60% +10.9%
20% +7.5% 44% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +102% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$17 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)25 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +137%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$78 +764%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$30 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$34 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$29 -93%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 75¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $89 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 7h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 42h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.46 · official $149.46 (match) · 61 history records