Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xeca4…8c48 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+7%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$76
other 1% −$4
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 36% -5.1%
≤30d 33 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 36% -5.1%
≤90d 33 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 36% -5.1%
all 33 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 36% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 36% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 33% -14.2%
15% -35.1% 27% -22.5%
20% -41.4% 21% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $178 −$25 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $130 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $109 +$114 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$32 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $131 +$112 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $130 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$58 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +175%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $148 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records