Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xeca3…c515 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-17%) realized −$46 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$44
sports 33% −$19
world 8% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.4% -42.5% 40% 40% -37.9%
≤30d 5 -36.4% -42.5% 40% 40% -37.9%
≤90d 5 -36.4% -42.5% 40% 40% -37.9%
all 5 -36.4% -42.5% 40% 40% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.5% 40% -37.9%
10% -48.0% 40% -43.9%
15% -53.0% 20% -49.3%
20% -57.6% 20% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $20 +$19 +95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $53 +$12 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 68¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $48 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $53 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $16 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $15 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 17d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 17d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 82¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.87 · official $101.87 (match) · 32 history records